Will the Sales of Macs Decline Until MacIntels Debut?

The answer is yes according to a number of reader polls posted on various Mac Web sites and comments from so-called analysts quoted here and there. In fact, no one knows how sales of Macs based on Freescale’s G4 and IBM’s G5 CPUs will fair until the Macs with an Intel CPU inside begin to flow a year from now.  

Our guess is that sales will not dip during the transition, at least not as a result of people waiting for the MacIntels. And why should they? Mac users benefit from Apple’s innovation but as a whole they tend not to be early adopters. So why would one expect that if they needed a new computer now or in six months that they would wait to buy the initial MacIntels in one to two and a half years hence?

Over the years people have written us many times wondering whether or not they should buy a new Mac right then because Apple may just be ready to release an updated version. Our answer has always been the same: if you really need a new computer get one. This is because if one waits for the next update one will wait forever since Macs get updated continuously just like every other personal computer. Besides, the market for slightly-used Macs thrives in case a new Mac comes out with a must-have feature. Why is now any different?

But Apple will be changing CPUs. What if you buy a Mac with a G4 or G5 in the interim, will Apple support it for at least 5 years? Of course, Apple will but the best predictor is history. Our main day job Mac is a Power Mac G4 Cube purchased in August, 2000, within five weeks of 5 years ago. It runs Mac OS X 10.4.1 Tiger just fine and all of the current versions of applications that we used in 2000. Less than three years after we bought the Cube (and 2 others) Apple switched to a totally different CPU, the IBM G5. Going back even further, our new Power Mac 7100 ran Mac OS 7.1 through 9.1 and all of the Classic OS applications for more than 5 years. Yes, it had a PowerPC CPU but the radically different PowerPC G3 and G4s came out during that period and Apple didn’t obsolete the 7100. In fact, it still runs great today with a G3 upgrade CPU.

Our only concern for a sales dip is if Apple’s offerings stagnate between now and when they are replaced by their MacIntel version. With today’s rapid evolution of graphics, wireless networking and storage technologies we don’t think that stagnation is in the cards. Hey, IBM may even hit 3GHz in the G5 in the next six months and Freescale’s low power G4s may hit 2GHz.

So what’s the big worry? If you need a new Mac today or next year, get one. You won’t regret it even if it doesn’t have an Intel inside.

what you think. [Bill Fox]