Mac Shipments Fell 11 Percent in Q3 2026 While Apple's PC Market Share Rose--IDC Counts 5.9 Million Macs and a 9.5 Percent Share, Omdia 6.8 Million, in a PC Market Down 20 Percent on Memory Prices, With Apple's Own Number Due November 2

IDC counts 5.9 million Macs and a 9.5 percent share

IDC's table has the world at 62.7 million PCs against 78.5 million in the third quarter of 2025, "the second consecutive decline and a deeper one than the 3.8% drop in Q2," and 9.1 percent below the second quarter of 2026. Lenovo shipped 14.9 million, HP 10.3 million, Dell 7.6 million, Apple 5.9 million against 6.7 million, and ASUS 5.5 million; HP's 30.9 percent fall was the steepest, ASUS's 8.6 the mildest, and Apple's 11.3 the second mildest. The release does not mention Apple outside the table. It blames "continued supply constraints and the inventory pull-in earlier in the year, as vendors and channels rushed to stock up ahead of memory-driven price hikes," which "left the quarter with little demand to draw on." 9to5Mac ran the table on October 8, and MacRumors on October 9 added that Apple raised Mac prices in June over memory costs and that Tim Cook named "sharply rising memory expenses" on the July earnings call.

Omdia counts 6.8 million, so the firms differ by 900,000 Macs

Omdia, from London on October 9, has 58.1 million desktops, notebooks and workstations, down 21.2 percent. Its Apple line reads "shipments of 6.8 million units, down 11% year on year," with a gain of "more than one percentage point of market share as its premium positioning helped limit the impact of higher prices." By our arithmetic that is an 11.7 percent share, and the 900,000-Mac gap is our subtraction; both are estimates, and IDC calls its own preliminary. Apple's own number is revenue: Apple's July 30 earnings release said Mac revenue "set new June quarter records" inside a $109.4 billion quarter, and Apple has set November 2 for the September quarter's.

Memory prices are the reason, and both firms expect them to stay high

Omdia's Ben Yeh says: "The cost share of DRAM and SSDs in PCs has risen sharply from a typical level of around 15% to nearly 40%, with price increases more than fourfold." Its Ishan Dutt adds that "the impact of upstream component cost increases has now fully worked its way through to end-market pricing." IDC's Jitesh Ubrani says channels are "worried about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand," which "could translate into promotions and some short-term relief for consumers, but we don't expect pricing anywhere near what it was a year ago. Prices will remain elevated." Omdia forecasts a 24 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2026 and a further 7 percent for 2027.

What it means for a Mac buyer

Omdia credits Apple's "premium positioning" for the share; the entry prices are these. Apple's March 3 MacBook Air press release calls the Air "the world's most popular laptop," at $1,099 for the 13-inch and $1,299 for the 15-inch, and Apple's March 4 MacBook Neo press release put the Neo at $599 as "Apple's most affordable laptop ever." The Neo went to $699 on June 25, as our September 28 report on the Neo at six months records along with IDC's June-quarter Mac share of 9.9 percent, so the share fell from the quarter before and rose from the year before. Apple's figure arrives on November 2: MacRumors' October 6 note has the report at 1:30 p.m. Pacific and the call at 2:00 p.m., and our October 11 preview says what to listen for, which is how short the supply of Macs ran.

Then and now

Dana Baggett's October 18, 2005 note on Apple's 45 percent growth in the U.S. PC market, citing Reuters, had Apple leading every maker in the third quarter of 2005, against Dell's 12 percent, to a share of "4.2-4.3 per cent depending on which firm made the estimate." Our April 2000 note had the share at 4.4 percent, and our May 2001 commentary on 3 percent market share asked whether it would end the joy that is Mac. Twenty-one years on, the firms still disagree on the estimate, the share is 9.5 or 11.7 percent of a shrinking market, and we would take 5.9 million Macs in a bad year over 45 percent growth from a 4 percent base.